we moved onto YGE 3 days ago at
411.07. That one has moved up 32% since we got in.
whats a trader to do?
stay tuned because i feel there is no real resistance until about $16.6. if the market holds up YGE could run some more.
Thursday, June 4, 2009
Wednesday, June 3, 2009
FUQI
i jumprd on this gem just yesterday @ 14.57. my position stopped out today @ 13.08. so far the low of the day. boy that is a slap in the face!
oh well, get up and keep going.
Sunday, May 31, 2009
decision made, i'm done. i'm back!!
i'm christian, but haven't been in a church for more than 3 years.
sent my kids and soon to be ex-wife, sent a ton of money and am careful to always pay as much as i can. i know, no big deal and i certainly don't think it matters in this world and universe. but i thought some others like me might be inspired after reading about this prodigal son. i'm back!! i'll be there come this Wednesday evening and this coming sunday.
i'm blessed, i know!
a seeking alpha instablog
WPZ
WPZ - Williams Partners LP. - is a 900 million market cap US company that gathers, process and treats natural gas from the natural gas and crude oil industries. the setup is as one of those "master limited partnerships" . following the law they must return almost all earnings to shareholders. this is done as through "disributions" of income, not dividends. the amount is by law very high and accounts for the high payout ratio of 110%( this high number can be misleading in the case of a "partnership" if the trader doesn't know how partnerships are legally setup) we can be reassured by the quick ratio of 2.27. WPZ has had an ROE of 67% margins have all been above 20% PEand forward PE are estimated as 8.0. price to free cash flow ratio is 6.0. WPZ is paying its shareholder owners 13% in "distributions" also called dividends. my one year target, natural gas has been treated stuply. that won't go on for much longer. based upon a stock market that doesn't crash, is about 20% capital gains in addition to the distributions for a 33% total return within the coming 6 - 12 months!
get it, set(stop order) and forget it!
i have no position in WPZ, but wish that my rules would allow me to.
Saturday, May 30, 2009
food for thought or money seeds?
money seeds?
what the heck.
well maybe, could be, right? just do homework and check them out.
at his point with the market being toppy, tired, but smarter than me and still going higher after i said it was going to pullback i am favoring dividend payors. market is saying, buy, go long. if you look at these picks, do thorough homework and if you take a long position, immediately set an appropriate stop loss order. in this list the divy payers come first. for the record closing prices are all 05/29/2009.
NGLS
NGLS- Targas Resources - is one holding in my personal portfolio. as all "partnerships" the payout ratio is high, but appropriate. the quick ratio of 2.8 is reassuring. they obtain and process natural gas. gas has been crushed, but lets get real, this home grown energy has got to continue its recent climb back. this stock has absolutley no over-head supply, resistance. i am hoping to see a 50% capital gain and almost 20% dividend over the next year. it's not too late to get this one because gas is recovering slowly and NGLS trades with that news.
(full disclosure, i'm already long NGLS in a big way. that large position is up 15% in price and has paid me a quarterly dividend equal to 5% ! )
CALM
CALM - Cal-Maine Foods - man, i wish that i had bought CALM, but i don't own it. my portfolio is
full so i can't add it now. i can't break my rules because cash dollars are the best. on this one i'm looking for a 30% price gain in the coming months and if you own it now you will see almost 7% dividend. CALM may be the perfect buy, set a relaxed stop, reinvest the 7% dividend and hold long-term stock. it goes up and down in a regular pattern so that your investment will grow nicely from the reinvestments. eggs are a commodity that the world needs like crazy and they are one of the best producers. CALM quick ratio is 1.2 and the debt/equity is 0.41, not bad.
now for some good stocks for capital gains, but not paying a divy.
MTZ
MTZ - Mastec - has moderate over-head supply and resistance in the mid $13's. if the market
doesn't crash again we have reasons to consider this one a strong buy because of potential capital gains from here. they are involved in specialty, heavy construction. as the US recovers MTZ will get their share of business and realize the projected earnings growth.there is some debt as one might expect in their business. the debt/eq ratio of 0.61 is not too heavy. i'm targeting about 70% price appreciation in the next year!
FRPT
FRPT - force protection - has been trending up a bit more than Mr. market. there is really no over-
head resistance. i'm not going to be suprised when this one makes a 50% move over the next year. ZERO debt in a defense contractor! quick ratio of 1.7! i tried to make money owning this before, but it was just not ready for primetime. FRPT has now grown up. Buy and set a stop and let her rip, i mean run.
OPTV
OPTV - open TV - this one is trading right at very mild over-head resistance. if the market does not
pullback this one will breakout for about a 30%+ run. they have zero debt and a quick ratio of 3.2. truly massive earnings expansion is being projected. if you jump on i, set and maintain your stops and let her run for capital gains!
a bit more book keeping, my personal holdings have changed since i posted on 05/25/2009. the present portfolio includes:
50% ETFs that hold USA treasury bonds:
SHY (2/5s)
IEI (1/5)
IEF (1/5)
TLH (1/5)
stop loss orders set for about 20%
two high yield dividend payors ( my selection had nothing to do with sector or industry):
NGLS( 2% position)
PSE( 2% position)
stop loss orders set for about 20%
one "capital gain stock":
LO( 2% position)
stop loss orders set for about 10%
one bottom fish:
PCBC( 1% position)
stop loss orders set for about 10%
one "trader":
YGE( 1% position)
stop loss orders set for about 10%
one S&P 2x ETF, SSO ( 7% position, long)
stop loss orders set for about 10%
Cash USA Dollars( 30% - 35%)
USA Dollar in cash is king!!! !! !
* I'm considering selling LO, maybe a potential buyout candidate, and replacing with CALM or OPTV to hold long term. separately, i see how posting my personal, trading portfolio could require a lot of attention and be time consuming so i will do this very infrequently.
bring the economy back, bring the market back, that's fun trading!
house keeping comments
May 22, 2009 i posted that now is the time to go with stocks that pay. my favorite payor of the three companies i charted was CALM. i gave some pretty compelling info to support that pick and posted a target of $32.00.
look at CALM, how great eggs is!
22% up in one week and if you jumped on it you are collecting a 7% divy! at this pace the total return is 29% just that quick!
eggs are a commodity. so nice to have something to buy and hold for a while.( disclosure, i have no position in CALM, but wish that i had taken my own suggestion)
my portfolio that was posted has changed.
HEB stopped out 05/26/2009
05/26/2009 i took a 1% position in YGE to replace HEB. i made that move so quickly that i didn't have time to post, sorry. YGE has moved up 16% since i added it to my portfolio.
that kind of action is why we call it fun trading!
look at CALM, how great eggs is!
22% up in one week and if you jumped on it you are collecting a 7% divy! at this pace the total return is 29% just that quick!
eggs are a commodity. so nice to have something to buy and hold for a while.( disclosure, i have no position in CALM, but wish that i had taken my own suggestion)
my portfolio that was posted has changed.
HEB stopped out 05/26/2009
05/26/2009 i took a 1% position in YGE to replace HEB. i made that move so quickly that i didn't have time to post, sorry. YGE has moved up 16% since i added it to my portfolio.
that kind of action is why we call it fun trading!
Market Uptime
this bad boy can't be predicted.
we just never know!
it looks tired and then trades right back to maintain the short-term up-trend. to make money we have to follow but only one step behind. for the next trading session things continue to hold for going long. the nasdaq bullish percent and the wilshire 5000 are good longs.
any bullish percent above that 50 line is telling us that the price action in most stocks is still making bullish patterns. and so goes the market.
i think the next challenge is at the 200 day MA, about 2% on the wilshire 5000. but look at the StochiRsi, as market nears this resistance we are trading with increasing relative strength. this is a sign that while we might predict that since mid March it's time for a pullback, traders in aggregate are still bidding this thing higher. for now, stay long and have fun trading!
we just never know!
it looks tired and then trades right back to maintain the short-term up-trend. to make money we have to follow but only one step behind. for the next trading session things continue to hold for going long. the nasdaq bullish percent and the wilshire 5000 are good longs.
any bullish percent above that 50 line is telling us that the price action in most stocks is still making bullish patterns. and so goes the market.
i think the next challenge is at the 200 day MA, about 2% on the wilshire 5000. but look at the StochiRsi, as market nears this resistance we are trading with increasing relative strength. this is a sign that while we might predict that since mid March it's time for a pullback, traders in aggregate are still bidding this thing higher. for now, stay long and have fun trading!
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