decision made, i'm done. i'm back!!

i'm christian, but haven't been in a church for more than 3 years.
sent my kids and soon to be ex-wife, sent a ton of money and am careful to always pay as much as i can. i know, no big deal and i certainly don't think it matters in this world and universe. but i thought some others like me might be inspired after reading about this prodigal son. i'm back!! i'll be there come this Wednesday evening and this coming sunday.
i'm blessed, i know!

Posted via email from fortypercent's posterous

a seeking alpha instablog

WPZ

WPZ - Williams Partners LP. - is a 900 million market cap US company that gathers, process and treats natural gas from the natural gas and crude oil industries. the setup is as one of those "master limited partnerships" . following the law they must return almost all earnings to shareholders. this is done as through "disributions" of income, not dividends. the amount is by law very high and accounts for the high payout ratio of 110%( this high number can be misleading in the case of a "partnership" if the trader doesn't know how partnerships are legally setup) we can be reassured by the quick ratio of 2.27. WPZ has had an ROE of 67% margins have all been above 20% PEand forward PE are estimated as 8.0. price to free cash flow ratio is 6.0. WPZ is paying its shareholder owners 13% in "distributions" also called dividends. my one year target, natural gas has been treated stuply. that won't go on for much longer. based upon a stock market that doesn't crash, is about 20% capital gains in addition to the distributions for a 33% total return within the coming 6 - 12 months!

get it, set(stop order) and forget it!


i have no position in WPZ, but wish that my rules would allow me to.

Posted via email from fortypercent's posterous

food for thought or money seeds?

money seeds?

what the heck.
well maybe, could be, right? just do homework and check them out.

at his point with the market being toppy, tired, but smarter than me and still going higher after i said it was going to pullback i am favoring dividend payors. market is saying, buy, go long. if you look at these picks, do thorough homework and if you take a long position, immediately set an appropriate stop loss order. in this list the divy payers come first. for the record closing prices are all 05/29/2009.



NGLS





NGLS- Targas Resources - is one holding in my personal portfolio. as all "partnerships" the payout ratio is high, but appropriate. the quick ratio of 2.8 is reassuring. they obtain and process natural gas. gas has been crushed, but lets get real, this home grown energy has got to continue its recent climb back. this stock has absolutley no over-head supply, resistance. i am hoping to see a 50% capital gain and almost 20% dividend over the next year. it's not too late to get this one because gas is recovering slowly and NGLS trades with that news.

(full disclosure, i'm already long NGLS in a big way. that large position is up 15% in price and has paid me a quarterly dividend equal to 5% ! )



CALM




CALM - Cal-Maine Foods - man, i wish that i had bought CALM, but i don't own it. my portfolio is
full so i can't add it now. i can't break my rules because cash dollars are the best. on this one i'm looking for a 30% price gain in the coming months and if you own it now you will see almost 7% dividend. CALM may be the perfect buy, set a relaxed stop, reinvest the 7% dividend and hold long-term stock. it goes up and down in a regular pattern so that your investment will grow nicely from the reinvestments. eggs are a commodity that the world needs like crazy and they are one of the best producers. CALM quick ratio is 1.2 and the debt/equity is 0.41, not bad.



now for some good stocks for capital gains, but not paying a divy.


MTZ





MTZ - Mastec - has moderate over-head supply and resistance in the mid $13's. if the market
doesn't crash again we have reasons to consider this one a strong buy because of potential capital gains from here. they are involved in specialty, heavy construction. as the US recovers MTZ will get their share of business and realize the projected earnings growth.there is some debt as one might expect in their business. the debt/eq ratio of 0.61 is not too heavy. i'm targeting about 70% price appreciation in the next year!


FRPT




FRPT - force protection - has been trending up a bit more than Mr. market. there is really no over-
head resistance. i'm not going to be suprised when this one makes a 50% move over the next year. ZERO debt in a defense contractor! quick ratio of 1.7! i tried to make money owning this before, but it was just not ready for primetime. FRPT has now grown up. Buy and set a stop and let her rip, i mean run.


OPTV




OPTV - open TV - this one is trading right at very mild over-head resistance. if the market does not
pullback this one will breakout for about a 30%+ run. they have zero debt and a quick ratio of 3.2. truly massive earnings expansion is being projected. if you jump on i, set and maintain your stops and let her run for capital gains!



a bit more book keeping, my personal holdings have changed since i posted on 05/25/2009. the present portfolio includes:


50% ETFs that hold USA treasury bonds:
SHY (2/5s)
IEI (1/5)
IEF (1/5)
TLH (1/5)
stop loss orders set for about 20%

two high yield dividend payors ( my selection had nothing to do with sector or industry):
NGLS( 2% position)
PSE( 2% position)
stop loss orders set for about 20%

one "capital gain stock":
LO( 2% position)
stop loss orders set for about 10%

one bottom fish:
PCBC( 1% position)
stop loss orders set for about 10%

one "trader":
YGE( 1% position)
stop loss orders set for about 10%

one S&P 2x ETF, SSO ( 7% position, long)
stop loss orders set for about 10%

Cash USA Dollars( 30% - 35%)
USA Dollar in cash is king!!! !! !


* I'm considering selling LO, maybe a potential buyout candidate, and replacing with CALM or OPTV to hold long term. separately, i see how posting my personal, trading portfolio could require a lot of attention and be time consuming so i will do this very infrequently.




bring the economy back, bring the market back, that's fun trading!

Posted via email from fortypercent's posterous

house keeping comments

May 22, 2009 i posted that now is the time to go with stocks that pay. my favorite payor of the three companies i charted was CALM. i gave some pretty compelling info to support that pick and posted a target of $32.00.

look at CALM, how great eggs is!
22% up in one week and if you jumped on it you are collecting a 7% divy! at this pace the total return is 29% just that quick!



eggs are a commodity. so nice to have something to buy and hold for a while.( disclosure, i have no position in CALM, but wish that i had taken my own suggestion)

my portfolio that was posted has changed.
HEB stopped out 05/26/2009
05/26/2009 i took a 1% position in YGE to replace HEB. i made that move so quickly that i didn't have time to post, sorry. YGE has moved up 16% since i added it to my portfolio.



that kind of action is why we call it fun trading!

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Market Uptime

this bad boy can't be predicted.
we just never know!

it looks tired and then trades right back to maintain the short-term up-trend. to make money we have to follow but only one step behind. for the next trading session things continue to hold for going long. the nasdaq bullish percent and the wilshire 5000 are good longs.



any bullish percent above that 50 line is telling us that the price action in most stocks is still making bullish patterns. and so goes the market.

 
i think the next challenge is at the 200 day MA, about 2% on the wilshire 5000. but look at the StochiRsi, as market nears this resistance we are trading with increasing relative strength. this is a sign that while we might predict that since mid March it's time for a pullback, traders in aggregate are still bidding this thing higher. for now, stay long and have fun trading!

Posted via email from fortypercent's posterous

my rapidly and ever changing portfolio

my personal holdings are:


50% ETFs that hold USA treasury bonds:
SHY (2/5s)
IEI (1/5)
IEF (1/5)
TLH (1/5)
stop loss orders set for about 20%

two high yield dividend payors ( my selection had nothing to do with sector or industry):
NGLS( 2% position)
PSE( 2% position)
stop loss orders set for about 20%

one "capital gain stock":
LO( 2% position)
stop loss orders set for about 10%

one bottom fish:
PCBC( 2% position)
stop loss orders set for about 10%

one "trader":
HEB( 1% position)
stop loss orders set for about 10%

one S&P 2* ETF( 7% position, long or short)
stop loss orders set for about 10%

Cash USA Dollars( 30% - 35%)
USA Dollar in cash is king!!! !! !


Right now, I'm considering cutting PCBC to a 1% position. I'm considerin selling LO, a buyout candidate, and replacing with CALM or OPTV to hold long term.

After these wo changes, I'll play it all by "ear" following my trading rules.

Fun Trading!!!

Posted via email from fortypercent's posterous

Posterous | Re: now is a time to get long in stocks that pay

getting better at posting, pictures, etc. lookout ya'll

Posted via email from fortypercent's posterous

now is a time to get long in stocks that pay

The market is getting choppy and that makes it difficult to pick big short-term movers. This is when i'm going to get into positions that are stable and pay their owners to wait for gains.

I'm liking ABT - Abott Labs is only 6.5% above its 52 week low. So this is bottom fishing!! Lots of upside potential. I believe as much as 30% upside within a year. While one waits ABT will be paying a 3.6% dividend! Even after the stock market melt down of the past 12 months this remains a 60 billion dollar capitali$t monster!! Its quick ratio of 1.26 and payout ratio less than 50% means one will be safe reinvesting those dividends to compound the wealth! My target on ABT is $54.00 . While ABT is trading near a low now is the time to consider buying and holding!





Another to think about buying, reinvesting the dividend and holding is DBD - Diebold. These guys pay a 4.2% dividend and have a payout ratio of 65%. Their quick ratio of 1.4 means their finances are pretty safe. Think about it their vaults and safes and secure doors and ATM machines are everywhere. My target on DBD is $33.00 .





CALM is another great dividend payor. Cal-Maine Foods is the largest egg company in the US and one of the largest on the planet! They are paying 7.2% dividend. Reinvest this one for sure, reinvest!! Payout ratio is only 2.5% and quick ratio is 1.2. Those numbers mean rock solid financial safety! CALM has been moving sideways after falling. We are now at a great price for entry. My target for CALM is $32.00 .




When the market is getting Toppy it is hard to bottom fish too much or find rocket ship stocks, yet the bias is still long. These are the times to get paid some quality dividends.

Thats fun trading!!

 

 

Posted via email from fortypercent's posterous

Rally or Pullback ?? just choppy

We are still trending up as best I can tell. However, market is trading like its getting tired and needs to correct.

I like to keep an eye on the nasdaq bullish percent. As long as we see this indicator above 50 the overall trading bias is upward.



The Wilshire 5000 is a whole market index containing far more than 6000 symbols. I also use the weekly chart of the wilshire to gage market direction.The weekly 5000 is moving up.





so my bias in trading remains long!!

Posted via email from fortypercent's posterous

the market hovers

monday 05182009

the market hovers so we have to trade

in and out
out and in
long and short
short and long

take a look at the nasdaq bullish pecent and the weekly wilshire both bullish, but both suggesting that the upwards price action
is slowing.







with the bullish% and wilshire where they are i say either step aside or trade brilliantly long.
we could fall, bullish% or rise to resistance or even break-out through resistance, wilshire.

today 05182009 i was very smart with two long 1% positions:

i sold, closed gnw up 10.5% since 05142009

i sold, closed ahr up 10.5% since 05182009( a day trade)



remember, don't look back, ca$h is the king!!

my screen showed me ahr early in am. i quivered getting long. i could have just bought at $0.93,but hesitated.
after 2 hours of watching and salivating at the possibilities i placed an order at $1.15. when my order filled i said to myself, "today is a very good day!!!"
 

Posted via email from fortypercent's posterous

Trading and the eye of the tiger

my 1% position in GNW is going pretty well. closed up about 6%.

not bad.

 

however, as i watched GNW traded up almost 11% above my entry. in just an hour that beat the return of one of my dividend payors that i've held for over 3 months! whoa, 3 months return in only a few minutes! my finger trembled! i wanted to sell GNW and realize my profit. 

 

couldn't do it. i held GNW and it moved down from there. six percent in a day is nothing to be sad about, but still 11% in hand would have been even better. with the market getting top heavy all new postions are for trading.

 

the market is always completely impersonal and cold. trade for yourself ruthlessly.

see each trade through the eye of the tiger

Posted via email from fortypercent's posterous

GNW!!!

market bouncing, but still there is resistance to be met at the 200 day average. be careful.

 

can't post a pix now, but i took a 1% long position in GNW. placed the order at the 200 period average on the 5 minute chart. one hour later this one is already up 5%.

that is great action, but also means traders are all around. charts suggest momentum could carry this to about $7.

 

again, be careful!

Posted via email from fortypercent's posterous

one for settin a wide stop and planning to "buy and hold" long-term

PBI is so tempting. an apparently very safe, 6% dividend and upside of 20% - 30% gain in the coming one year.

once my cigarette play( LO) is done, PBI here i come!!



please do homework. this is not a trader. this is a set it and forget it company and stock

Fun Trading

Posted via email from fortypercent's posterous

Market on the fence!!

this market is on the fence and waffling. we could see 7 - 8 percent correction or go higher.

my stop on SSO got taken out, but my charts don't confirm SDS as a buy and weekly charts are pointing down, but not confirming the correction yet. certainly no new positions until bull or bear declares.

 

i'm getting killed on my remaining 0.5% LEA position. lesson learned.

 

stay tuned, we're Fun Trading.

Posted via email from fortypercent's posterous

traders only for wednesday, 05132009

BZ

we were stopped out today with about a 40% profit after holding for 3 sessions. BZ doesn't show in my screen today, but we may take another bet. do your homework before even considering.



RAD



RAD was good for today. This one has a good run left in it. lets hope the market agrees. price action is very bullish. again do your home work. set and stick to stops. any out-sized profits means take some money off the table to realize some cash!

look for price action early and enter on temporary weakness.

lets have some Fun Trading!!

Posted via email from fortypercent's posterous

funky trading day

sorry readers, i'll need to learn how to post better. my last post left out some good charts.

from yesterday's post, our trader, RAD did the best. other picks fared as did the broader markets.

as i pointed out. the market is up against resistance. today it stalled.

the  coming days trading will be telling if a correction is starting or if the run continues.

 

the LEA trade i mentioned a few post back is a trade gone bad for me. it is a very good example of being suspicious of the market for a stock and not being decisive. the lesson learned is take a profit and don't look back. be swift and ruthless!!

 

that's fun trading 

Posted via email from fortypercent's posterous

food for thoughtful traders

we never know what tomorrow might bring. the market has bounced down after reaching very near, within 1% of its 200d ma, possibly a significant resistance level.



the wilshire, our total market index closed 2% down, 3% below resistance. i consider this market on the fence and could go either way, on up or a downward correction starting in the next few days. trade carefully and very fast to hold on to any profits and minimize losses.

i like the risk here.
this is that grey zone between the bull and the bear. i think it's time for bulls.

this evening lets think about potentially taking positions in:

RAD
CTIC
CWB
UCBH
PBI

the feature is the stock of Rite Aid Drug Stores they are trading very bulish and have only minimal resistance before breaking out. this looks like it can only bestopped if the whole market continues to correct. if the market holds up RAD looks ready to run up!






RAD is what i call a trader. so, remember, set stops and move fast, if you look around and see a profit and the money seems too good for this market, sell and get out with a stash of cash. up 6% in one hour is absolutely awesome. don't worry about what might have been. move on.

PBI is very conservative company with a great dividend. set a wider stop on this one and maybe hold it for years.
the others are regional banks and a biotech that is hot( finally)

do your homework
do not buy premarket!

Posted via email from fortypercent's posterous

You never go broke taking a profit

we all need to move fast in the modern stock market. you can be up in the morning and broke in the afternoon. take a look at todays action in LEA an auto parts maker. i was sitting on a 20% profit early on and am -4% now. i thought and placed a sell order to try to capture a few more percent profit with half my position and placed a stop order on the other half. my sell never happened and my stop got taken out. now i'm 10% down on the half position that stopped and 4% down on the half position that i tried to squeeze two more points from.



lesson to me and lesson to you??

Posted via email from fortypercent's posterous

remember, bears make money and bulls make money, but pigs get slaughtered! !!

you heard it here first, market is a bull right now!!
chart the price action on the wilshire 5000, both weekly and monthly charts are clearly up, up! go long and keep goin long until the weekly turns down.( try charting the etf, TMW)

homework is required to make money in this crazy market. try http://www.google.com/finance/ or http://finance.yahoo.com/ , you get the picture.


MYDividends

do your own home work on these dividend players. these stocks or similar ones may be candidates for holding long-term. (set your stops with a wide margin, but do set stops)






*i hold a very large position in LO*, a great dividend payer.





with the market coming back these are going to see capital gains and yield!




MyStocks

these guys seem poised to have substantial capital gains in burst. they have tended to have good return on equity over time due to strong businesses. and there may be a small dividend on some.









ssl, sunh, asml or similar stocks may be appropriate for long-term holding but with stops to get out if they turn against you. these types of companies stock will soar for a few years as the world economy recovers from this great depression. i'll be looking for more of these money makers in the coming days




Traders

these symbols are valid for only 2 - 3 days. these markets are changing fast. these stocks are for very short-term trading positions and day-trading. these companies stocks are hotter than potatoes. they can be red hot. be careful. get in, make money and get out fast when the run slows down!
set stops no more than 10% below and stick to your guns! if you get 20% in a few minutes or a few hours or a few days, sell some to take some money off the table.
homework is required to make money in this crazy market. try http://www.google.com/finance/ or http://finance.yahoo.com/ , you get the picture. go to your favorite sites and study before putting your money out there. make sure you size your position appropriately and decide upon a stop loss.


consider these names only if you are a blood thirsty capitalist pig, kick ass, ruthless trader. monday, may 11, 2009 early on consider: axl, lea, gnw, wfc, fitb, zion, pwav.





*i already hold a small position in LEA*












again, these stocks and timing can be fun and exciting, but also dangerous. so be brutal in looking out for number one!!

see ya!!